The BJP is not just sitting pretty in Lok Sabha for the upcoming no confidence motion, which is slated to be discussed between August 8 and 10, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi may defeat it with a bigger and more impressive margin than in 2018 when a similar motion was brought against the government.
In 2018, the BJP-led NDA government defeated a no confidence motion by 325-126 votes. This time, if all goes well, that margin is set to get bigger.
On the other hand, with a likely 130 votes in the Upper House, the contentious Delhi Services Bill is also expected to sail through and become an Act, notwithstanding Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s efforts to reach out to opposition leaders on the issue.
BIGGER MARGIN THAN 2018?
A no-confidence motion’s fate is decided in Lok Sabha where the BJP alone has 301 sitting MPs. When one takes the entire NDA into consideration, the number reaches a whopping 332. The majority mark is 272 in a 543-member house. With Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction)’s 13 MPs who were not with the NDA last time, reaching 329 becomes easier for the BJP.
Assuming the three Independents will go with the government, that count reaches 332. NCP’s Ajit Pawar faction recently joined the NDA and also brings an additional MP. Now, the entire Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is with the government. Earlier, the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party — which is the Pashupati Kumar Paras — faction was with NDA with its five MPs. Now, the other warring faction led by the late Ram Vilas Paswan’s son also brings another MP’s support for the government.
As speculated, Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and YSR Congress Party of Jagan Reddy (YSRCP) have also lent their support to the Bill while not even being part of the BJP-led alliance. Both of them have 12 and two MPs in the 17th Lok Sabha, respectively. That takes the government’s strength to a massive 346. Now, even a once estranged Telugu Desam Party (TDP) of Chandrababu Naidu is considering voting for the government on this issue. TDP has three MPs.
Last time, 325 votes were polled in favour of the Narendra Modi government in 2018 when the prime minister gave a 91-minute reply on the floor of the House. This time, his government is all set to breach its own record.
DELHI SERVICES BILL: BJP SECURE IN RAJYA SABHA, TOO
The Bill to replace Delhi ordinance was tabled in Lok Sabha, with Union Minister of State (MoS) for Home Nityanand Rai introducing it on Tuesday.
With the BJP alone having 301 MPs, it will be a cakewalk for the government to pass it in the Lok Sabha. The apprehension about a roadblock, however, was in the Upper House. But News18 has learnt that it will sail through in the Rajya Sabha as well, given BJD, YSRCP, and TDP’s voluntary support for the Bill. In fact, the way BJD MP Pinaki Misra defended the Bill surprised many in the Opposition. He reminded the opposition MPs that the Supreme Court itself has subjected its order in the related case to legislation if brought by the Centre.
In the Upper House, the BJP and its allies, as of now, have 105 members. The BJP is hopeful of getting the support of five nominated MPs from BJP — Gulam Ali, Mahesh Jethmalani, Sonal Mansingh, Ram Shakal and Rakesh Sinha. That takes its strength to 110. Meanwhile, the BJD and the YSRCP have nine MPs each in the Rajya Sabha. Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party has just one. Collectively, this takes the count to 129. If the two Independent MPs vote for the government, which seems likely, then it will reach 131.
SAFFRON SPLASH IN ANDHRA?
Andhra Pradesh, where the ruling YSRCP faces stiff opposition from its arch-rival TDP and an alliance of BJP-Jan Sena Party, seems all set to see a saffron splash, thanks to the legislative business in Rajya Sabha and the impending no confidence motion in Lok Sabha.
For the former, all parties have come on one side while for the latter, TDP is actively considering expressing support to the government. Jan Sena Party doesn’t have any MPs.
While dependence on central funds is perceived to be the reason why chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy is supporting the BJP at the national level, Naidu’s TDP is trying to warm up to JSP-BJP for a tripartite alliance to take on Jagan in the state where assembly polls are due next year.
But the very fact that TDP and YSRCP — two warring parties who do not see eye to eye — have decided to come on the same side, albeit for their own political compulsions, has left many amused.
