That Narendra Modi is a rare political phenomenon not just on the Indian political firmament but also in the world is becoming increasingly evident. How else do you explain the Indian prime minister’s continuing popularity even as the approval ratings of other leaders of the democratic world, be it Joe Biden of the US, Emmanuel Macron of France, Olaf Scholz of Germany, Justin Trudeau of Canada or Fumio Kishida of Japan, have taken a plunge.
This despite India’s economic growth having yet to return to pre-pandemic levels and mounting uncertainty and anxiety globally over a creeping economic recession brought on by the not-yet-over Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and now a brewing confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan. A global survey of 22 democratic countries by the US-based data intelligence company Morning Consult Political Intelligence released on August 4 put Modi’s approval ratings at 75 per cent, way ahead of five other leaders whose ratings also saw an increase, even as the rest of the pack dropped significantly in the popularity stakes (Biden’s ratings, for instance, have fallen to 38 per cent).
The latest Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey, conducted by india today in association with CVoter, only reaffirms Modi’s dominant (his critics call it domineering) political presence in the country. Despite domestic economic woes, his popularity ratings touched 66 per cent, an increase of 12 percentage points from August 2021 though not quite the stratospheric high of 78 per cent in August 2020 before the ill effects of the pandemic had fully registered. Modi also continues to be regarded as the leader best suited to become the next prime minister at 53.4 per cent, which is head, shoulders and hips above his nearest opposition rivals Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal, both of whom attract single-digit approval. Even within the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), none can match Modi’s popularity, with both Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath registering as blips in the distant horizon. He continues to be rated as the country’s best prime minister since Independence. Atal Bihari Vajpayee is a distant second, followed by Indira Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and Jawaharlal Nehru. This could well be because Modi’s predecessors, particularly Nehru and Indira, have less recall among the new generation.
Modi, however, has bucked another major trend: that of anti-incumbency. In the ninth year of his tenure, the MOTN poll shows that Modi would lead the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to its third consecutive majority in Parliament if a general election were to be held today. Before Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) walked out of the NDA on August 9, it was poised to win 307 seats, 35 more than the 272 needed for a simple majority but 45 less than the 352 the NDA actually secured in the May 2019 Lok Sabha election. NDA numbers have been depleting since 2019, with the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena in Maharashtra parting ways that year, and the likes of Shiromani Akali Dal and Telugu Desam Party deserting it too.
However, Modi and the BJP can take heart from the MOTN finding that the party would win a majority on its own with 283 seats, something that was in doubt in the previous two MOTNs. The loss of power in the politically crucial state of Bihar, which sends 40 members to the Lok Sabha, has changed equations somewhat. The CVoter snap poll conducted soon after Nitish’s exit estimates a loss of around 21 parliamentary seats for the NDA, reducing the BJP’s overall tally to 275 from 283—still sufficient for it to form a government on its own.
Modi’s personal popularity is also lifting the NDA government’s approval ratings, which stand at 56 per cent. But the MOTN respondents are clearly unhappy with the government’s handling of the economy, with a majority (67 per cent) stating that their economic status had either deteriorated or remained stagnant since the NDA government came to power in 2014 belying its poll promise of achhe din. Most were pessimistic about the chances of improvement in the economy. A substantial 73 per cent deemed the unemployment situation serious. This sentiment has prevailed for more than a year and a half now. When asked if they were happy, the percentage of people who replied in the affirmative registered a significant drop from six months ago.
What respondents regard as its successes and failures should be a fair warning for the Modi government to take the MOTN findings seriously. Among the top five successes of the NDA government that were listed, its handling of the Covid pandemic—a remarkable turnaround from past surveys—pushed the building of the Ram temple to fourth place, with the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir moving to second position, followed by corruption-free governance, with the crackdown on black money in fifth place. In contrast, three of the five big failures of the Modi government are economic in nature, be it price rise, unemployment or low economic growth. Together, they exercise 69 per cent of the respondents. This should be a clear wake-up call for the Modi government.
Modi has bucked another trend in the ninth year of his rule: anti-incumbency
Modi’s soaring popularity then is both a phenomenon and a paradox. What explains this puzzling duality? Past developments offer little clue. In the ninth year of the UPA government, Manmohan Singh faced falling economic growth rates as well as corruption charges. The MOTN survey conducted in 2013 predicted a wipeout for UPA-II in 2014. Even Indira Gandhi, despite being re-elected as prime minister in 1971 with a massive majority, faltered in her ninth year. High inflation caused by global oil shocks and growing unemployment resulted in widespread political unrest that led her to declare an emergency in June 1975. Modi seems to defy that trend, his popularity staying buoyant despite the serious economic decline that had set in even before the pandemic hit.
Experts have deduced certain reasons for this. Pollsters generally take four key issues that determine political popularity—inflation, unemployment, corruption and national insecurity—and are regarded as electoral fundamentals. While joblessness and inflation go against the Modi government, the other two factors work in his favour. No major corruption scams or scandals have rocked the NDA government unlike the last years of the Manmohan Singh government. The MOTN survey reflects that perception, with corruption-free governance and demonetisation figuring in the top five achievements of the Modi government. When it came to handling the pandemic, although the government came up drastically short on many counts during the second wave, it more than made up for it with its massive vaccination programme, which has come in for praise even from world leaders. Together, these factors have considerably bolstered public confidence in the Modi government. Also helping deflect blame from the Modi government are the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as both are deemed external factors that exacerbated the country’s economic woes.
Beyond these political calculations, Modi has also developed an extraordinary connect with the electorate, which sees him as a sincere, extremely hardworking politician keen on public good but firm and decisive at the same time. This includes the way he is perceived to have dealt with external threats from China and Pakistan, with Modi’s foreign policy getting a resounding thumbs-up. The perception that Modi is the best bet to solve the country’s problems has grown over successive MOTNs despite the economic setbacks caused by the pandemic. Yashwant Deshmukh, founder-editor of CVoter, says that Modi’s CEO style of governance is what leads voters to endorse him overwhelmingly in consecutive surveys. This trend obtains even at the state level where Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee do well, as does Arvind Kejriwal. As a result, these leaders are able to buck anti-incumbency trends.
The disarray in the Opposition has also worked in the NDA government’s favour and helped boost its ratings. The Congress has failed to get its act together and has been too busy fighting internal dissension to mount any solid challenge to Modi. And for all of Kejriwal’s growing success, especially the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s landslide win in Punjab, his national outreach remains limited. While he emerged as the best bet to lead an opposition coalition (before Bihar), his problem is that while he has the leadership qualities, he lacks an organisation.
The trouble with Rahul Gandhi is just the reverse: compared to AAP, the Congress has a pan-national organisation, but he has so far not demonstrated any ability to knit together and lead a disparate coalition. He also can’t counter the criticism against him, especially over his many unexplained jaunts abroad, suggesting that politics for him is more a hobby rather than the lifetime commitment it is for Modi. Nor has the Congress been able to come down hard on the government on economic issues. During the just-concluded Parliament session, they tried to organise a national protest on inflation and unemployment, but the timing was off as both Rahul and Sonia Gandhi were being interrogated by the Enforcement Directorate on alleged financial irregularities in National Herald ownership.
Other Opposition leaders have their own sets of limitations. While Mamata proved to be a formidable opponent to Modi and the BJP in West Bengal, inflicting a crushing defeat on them in the 2021 assembly polls, her subsequent efforts to project herself as a national alternative to Modi did not bear much fruit. Nitish’s ditching of the BJP and return to the mahagathbandhan fold in Bihar have made him a serious Opposition contender to Modi. But his frequent political U-turns have dented his political credibility. For the moment, then, the TINA (There is No Alternative) factor remains heavily in Modi’s favour.
The other major reason for Modi retaining his popularity is the clever mix he has followed of delivering on the Hindutva agenda by paving the way for the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and abrogating Article 370 in Kashmir while appropriating the socialist plank by executing an extensive welfare agenda. The implosion of Left parties across the country save in Kerala has enabled the BJP to thrive. There is thus no credible Bernie Sanders kind of figure in the Opposition to ask Modi what he has done to provide jobs, control prices, improve health and reduce poverty, or to cash in on the perception this MOTN throws up—of his government’s economic initiatives favouring big business.
Modi has also managed to play the hypernationalist card effectively, especially in India’s dealings with Pakistan and China, which has won him support among MOTN respondents. He is seen as a tough leader who, while upholding India’s best interests internationally, is putting an energetic shoulder to the wheel in sorting out the country’s economic woes. However, the MOTN poll flags some worrying trends: including a significant number who believe that Indian democracy is in danger and that communal tension is on the rise. They should serve as warning signals to the Modi government that all is not well.
Modi can take heart from the MOTN finding that BJP would win a simple majority were polls held today
Once seen as a party with a difference, the BJP is in danger of losing that sheen in its quest for power at any cost. The party has successfully destabilised opposition governments in Madhya Pradesh, Goa and, more recently, in Maharashtra by engineering defections, but it has not got done down well with everyone. The Modi government is also being accused of unleashing central agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate and the Central Bureau of Investigation to browbeat its opponents into silence. A number of MOTN respondents back the BJP’s tactics of poaching MLAs and don’t blame it for misusing investigative agencies. But the party cannot take much comfort in the fact as the gap between its approvers and disapprovers has narrowed significantly. Despite its shenanigans, you can now drive from Kanyakumari to Kathmandu via Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand and now Bihar without crossing a BJP state. So, even with all its strengths, the party remains vulnerable.
The other imperative for Modi is to develop a strong second line of leadership that could champion the initiatives his government has undertaken and execute his vision for India@100 long after he has laid down office. Nitin Gadkari, Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh emerge as the best-performing ministers in the Modi cabinet in the MOTN survey. Shah, Yogi Adityanath and Gadkari are also the preferred options to succeed Modi, in addition to Rajnath Singh and Nirmala Sitharaman. But none of them has the charisma and stature Modi enjoys across the country, and that is something the party and its mentor, the RSS, must ponder over.
The crux for the Modi government, which the MOTN points to, should be to address the public’s pain points, especially on the economic front. The argument that if there was so much economic distress, public protest should have broken out, is fallacious. When the Agniveer scheme was introduced, there were spontaneous riots across many states by aspirants who felt that the government was shortchanging them on employment. It was a pointer to the many bottled-up frustrations that could combust unexpectedly. The shock and awe tactics employed in passing the farm laws as well as the Agniveer scheme through overnight announcements have proved to be counterproductive.
Perhaps the current prime minister can take a leaf out of former prime minister Manmohan Singh’s book by setting up high-powered crisis management groups to deal with issues such as the rupee’s devaluation, oil imports, price rise, the fallout of the Ukraine crisis, rebuilding the small-scale sector and creating jobs. Modi did exactly that during the pandemic to manage every aspect of the crisis, be it hospital beds, test kits, personal protection equipment or vaccines, which proved quite effective. Doing so would bring more cohesion in managing key issues, especially among his cabinet colleagues who tend to operate in silos and take direction directly from the prime minister. The PM’s initiative to start a Gati Shakti portal that brings all key ministries and stakeholders together to coordinate infrastructure development is a step in the right direction.
Modi has maintained a fine balance between Hindutva, welfarism and hypernationalism
So far, Modi has in his eight years as prime minister managed to maintain the fine balance between focusing on development and welfarism and delivering on the Hindutva agenda. If the economy continues to slide, the BJP may be tempted to fall back on the default option of polarising the electorate to win in 2024. Modi must eschew that temptation. The biggest takeaway from this MOTN is that the government needs to set the economy right and put India firmly back on the high growth track. Modi has the experience, the political acumen, the wherewithal and the charisma to guide India out of the current abyss. The current MOTN shows that people not only trust him but are also betting on him to succeed. He must not fail us.
Methodology
The India Today Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted by CVoter, a globally renowned name in the field of socio-economic research, between July 15, 2022, and July 31, 2022, interviewing 22,861 respondents covering all Lok Sabha segments across all states. In addition to these samples, an additional 96,676 interviews from CVoter’s regular tracker data between February 2022 and July 2022 were also analysed for the long-term trendline in projected calculations of votes and seats. With the fast-changing situation in Bihar, a dynamic Snap Poll of 2,479 respondents was carried out on August 9 to assess the impact of the new ground equations on the national numbers. Thus, the opinion of 122,016 respondents was considered for this MOTN report. The margin of error is +/- 3 per cent at the macro level and +/- 5 per cent at micro-level reporting, with 95 per cent confidence level.
From May 2009 onwards, the CVoter Tracker has been carried out each week, 52 waves in a calendar year, in 11 national languages, across all states and UTs in India, with a target sample size of 30,000 samples each quarter. The average response rate is 55 per cent. Starting January 1, 2019, CVoter has been carrying the tracker on a daily basis, using the rollover sample of seven days for tracker analysis.
All these polls are based on a random probability sample as used in the globally standardised methodology, carried out by trained researchers across all geographic and demographic segments. This survey is based on CATI interviews of adult respondents across all segments. Standard RDD is used to draw random numbers covering all frequency series allocated to all operators across all telecom circles in India. CVoter ensures proper representative analysis by statistical weighing of the data to make it representative of the local population as per the latest census figures. The data is weighted to known census profiles, including gender, age, education, income, religion, caste, urban/ rural and vote recalls for the last Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. For the analytics, CVoter uses its proprietary algorithm to calculate the provincial and regional vote share based on the split-voter phenomenon.
CVoter follows the code of professional ethics and practices drafted by the World Association of Public Opinion Research and the official guidelines on opinion polling as instructed by Press Council of India.