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Modi-led NDA may get clear majority with 315 Lok Sabha seats if polls are held now: India TV-CNX Poll


Image Source : PTI (FILE) Prime Minister Narendra Modi

India TV-CNX Opinion Poll: Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may score a clear majority with 315 seats in a House of 543, if Lok Sabha elections are held now, says India TV-CNX Opinion Poll projection, final results of which were telecast on the news channel today. 

The Congress-led opposition combine I.N.D.I.A may get 172 Lok Sabha seats, and ‘Others’ including regional parties and independents, may get 56 seats, according to the projections. 

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) strength in Lok Sabha may get reduced from 303 to 293 this time, says the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. On the other hand, the main opposition party Congress which has 52 seats, may increase its tally this time to 70, according to the projection.

Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) may emerge as the third largest party in Lok Sabha with 30 seats this time, up by eight from 22 seats it won last time. The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) from Tamil Nadu may emerge as fourth largest party with 21 seats, three seats less than last time. 

Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) may increase its tally from six at present to eight, while Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may raise its tally from one seat at present to six Lok Sabha seats, if elections are held now. Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) may increase its tally from 12 to 13, says the projection. Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena (Shinde) may find its strength reduced from twelve to four. 

The biggest win for PM Modi will be from Uttar Pradesh, where NDA may win 73 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats if elections are held now. Out of 73, BJP may win 71 seats in UP, while its ally Apna Dal may bag two. Opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A may win the remaining seven seats in UP, says the poll projection.  

BJP is going to sweep all 26 Lok Sabha seats from Gujarat and all five seats from Uttarakhand. NDA may win 18 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats from Karnataka, leaving ten seats for I.N.D.I.A,  according to the projection.  

On the other hand, I.N.D.I.A alliance, consisting of UDF and LDF,  may sweep all 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, while in West Bengal, TMC-led I.N.D.I.A alliance may win 32 out of a total of 42 seats, leaving the remaining 10 seats for NDA. 

Following is the breakup of Lok Sabha seat projections by India TV-CNX Opinion Poll:

Total Lok Sabha seats: 543

  • NDA 315
  • I.N.D.I.A alliance 172
  • Others (including other parties and independents) – 56 seats

NDA includes BJP,  Shiv Sena (Shinde), NCP (Ajit Pawar), PMK, NDPP,  AINRC, NPP, SKM, RLJP,  LJP(R), HAM, Apna Dal, Nishad Party, MNF, AGP, JD(S) and other smaller parties. 

I.N.D.I.A alliance includes Congress, TMC, DMK, RJD, JD-U, JMM, NCP (Sharad Pawar), Shiv Sena (UBT), National Conference, JKPDP, RSP, IUML, Kerala Congress (M), Samajwadi Party, AAP, Left Front, RLD and other smaller parties. 

‘Others’ include Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress, Telugu Desam Party, Bharat Rashtra Samithi, BSP,  AIMIM, Akali Dal, DPAP, independents and smaller parties. 

State-wise break-up:

  1. Uttar Pradesh (80): NDA 73, I.N.D.I.A 7.
  2. Bihar (40): NDA 24, I.N.D.I.A 16.
  3. Maharashtra (48): NDA 28, I.N.D.I.A 20.
  4. Tamil Nadu (39): NDA 1, INDIA 32, Others 6. 
  5. West Bengal (42): NDA 10, INDIA 32. 
  6. Karnataka (28): NDA 18, INDIA 10, Others 0.
  7. Gujarat (26): NDA 26, INDIA 0.
  8. Kerala (20): NDA 0 , INDIA 20.
  9. Rajasthan (25): NDA 23, INDIA 2.
  10. Andhra Pradesh (25): NDA 0, INDIA 0, Others 25.
  11. Odisha (21): NDA 8, INDIA 0, Others 13.
  12. Madhya Pradesh (29): NDA 25, INDIA 4.
  13. Telangana (17): NDA 6, INDIA 2, Others 9.
  14. Assam (14): NDA 12, INDIA 1, Others 1.
  15. Chhattisgarh (11): NDA 7, INDIA 4.
  16. Jharkhand (14): NDA 13, INDIA 1.
  17. Haryana (10): NDA 8, INDIA 2.
  18. Punjab (13): NDA 1, INDIA 11, Others 1.
  19. Delhi (7): NDA 7, INDIA 0. 
  20. Uttarakhand(5): NDA 5, INDIA 0.
  21. Jammu and Kashmir/Ladakh (6): NDA 3, INDIA 2, Others 1.
  22. Himachal Pradesh (4): NDA 3, INDIA 1.
  23. Other NE states (11): NDA 8, INDIA 3.
  24. Goa (2): NDA 2 , I.N.D.I.A 0.
  25. Rest UT seats minus Ladakh (6): NDA 4, I.N.D.I.A 2.

TOTAL 543, NDA 315, I.N.D.I.A 172, OTHERS 56. 

Major party wise breakup:

BJP 293, Congress 70, AAP 6, TMC 30, BJD 13, Shiv Sena (Shinde) 4, Shiv Sena (UBT) 8, Samajwadi Party 4, Bahujan Samaj Party 0, Rashtriya Janata Dal 7, Janata Dal-U  7, DMK 21, AIADMK 6, NCP (Sharad) 3, NCP (Ajit) 2, YSR Congress 15, TDP 10, Left Front 6, BRS 8, Others including independents 30.

TOTAL 543 seats.

ALSO READ: India TV-CNX Opinion Poll: BJP-led NDA surges ahead of I.N.D.I.A in Bihar in close contest

ALSO READ: India TV-CNX Opinion Poll: AAP-Congress alliance leads in Punjab, BJP to sweep Delhi, Haryana

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