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In the Kolar Lok Sabha constituency, there are over seven lakh female voters. (Getty)
The Kolar constituency will vote in the second phase on April 26 and results will be declared on June 4
Kolar is a Scheduled Caste category Parliament seat comprising Sidlaghatta, Chintamani, Srinivaspur, Mulbagal (SC), Kolar Gold Field (SC), Bangarapet (SC), Kolar, and Malur assembly segments. The current MP is S Muniswamy of BJP. The constituency will vote in the second phase on April 26 and results will be declared on June 4.
Voting Factors
- Muniswamy Factor: Kolar is a semi-urban seat, which has more than 40 per cent urban population. While the Congress has been a traditionally weak player in the seat, when it comes to Lok Sabha elections, the party’s performance since Independence has been remarkable. Congress has held the Kolar Lok Sabha seat from 1952 to 1984 and then from 1989 to 2019. In 2019, KH Muniyappa was unseated by the BJP when S Muniswamy won with a massive majority of 2 lakh votes. Muniswamy is particularly influential. He is regarded as a staunch proponent of Hinduism in the district and has earned the reputation of being a readily accessible representative to the people, who appreciate his work and efforts.
- BJP’s Chances: BJP has reportedly proposed to allocate the seat to ally JD(S) this time around. It is unclear who will be the candidate yet. JD(S) is influential in areas like Sidlaghatta, Srinivasapur and Bangarapet. It is strong in five of eight taluks, while the BJP is dominant in six taluks. Due to the higher number of Vokkaliga voters, JD(S) demanded the ticket to contest. But now it appears they are struggling to find a suitable candidate. There is a significant pro-Modi wave in the Kolar district. However, JD(S) has cornered the seat as they are seeking tickets to preserve the existence of their leaders in this region. BJP cadre may also not be too thrilled in backing a JD(S) candidate, especially considering Muniswamy’s popularity. How this tussle impacts the BJP’s performance here remains to be seen.
- Congress’s Plans: KH Muniyappa, who is a minister in the state government, is likely to be fielded again in the constituency by Congress. He had held meetings with the party high command recently. The Dalit factor will be a key determinant in the election, with the Congress also banking on the image of party president Mallikarjun Kharge. As per ground reports, while Congress leads in SC/ST votes in Kolar, BJP has the upper hand among EST votes.
- SC/ST Votes: In Lok Sabha elections, SC/ST votes are crucial. In the assembly segment in Kolar, Muslim, Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribal voters make up more than half the voters, sections of whom traditionally backed the Congress. However, this equation was seemingly disrupted in the Lok Sabha polls of 2019 by BJP, as the party bagged 56 per cent votes. This suggests the BJP was able to attract a wide array of voters from castes in 2019 in the constituency, a trend it would want replicated in the coming elections.
- Women Voters: In the Kolar Lok Sabha constituency, there are over seven lakh female voters. Women voters have been benefiting from Union government schemes such as Garib Kalyan Yojana and PM Kisan Samman Nidhi. At the same time, the Stree Shakti Sangha initiative of the state government is highly popular. Congress’ failure to address local development issues has increased the possibility of driving more voters to lean towards the BJP. BJP and JD(S) appear to be preparing to mount a consolidated campaign over development deadlock.
Key Constituency Issues
- Water scarcity: Water scarcity is a big problem in Kolar. Kolar, Chickballapur and Bengaluru Rural districts are gifted with 5,349 natural lakes that can collectively hold 79 TMC of water. Yet, due to failed monsoons and groundwater depletion, the region is staring at droughts for successive years. Groundwater from borewells is the main source of drinking water in districts but it is not safe for drinking. According to a report released by the Department of Mines and Geology in 2012, groundwater depletion is so bad that people have been forced to dig up to 2000 feet to stumble upon water.
- Milk: Milk is an integral part of life across the six assembly constituencies of Kolar — from the socioeconomics of the region to politics. There are milk cooperatives in almost every one of the nearly 3,000 villages in Kolar (and neighbouring Chikkaballapura). Although milk was never an election issue in the past, it became one last year when Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) raised a row over Amul’s potential entry into Karnataka and its implications for the state’s dairy sector. The Kolar Chikkaballapur District Milk Producers’ Union (KOMUL) — an amalgamation of all the village cooperatives — is the second-largest of the 14 milk unions that are part of the Karnataka Milk Federation (KMF), after the Bengaluru union. KOMUL procures nearly 10 lakh litres of milk per day from the region. The issue became highly politicised in the lead-up to the Karnataka assembly elections. The debate continues to have some resonance even now.
- Lack of Infra: Road construction and repair work in Kolar is not progressing fast enough, causing dissatisfaction among the people of the district towards the state government. State highways are in a state of disrepair though roads in rural areas have improved under the Prime Minister’s Gram Sadak Yojana. The deteriorating condition of roads is seen as a failure of the Congress government as it is not providing adequate funding.
- Pollution: In Kolar district, with over 30 more crushers, people are suffering due to the intensity of air pollution in crusher zones. The dominance of politicians is resulting in crushers becoming instruments of corruption, and the state government has failed to curb this. Additionally, the presence of four industrial areas in the district has led to violations of environmental regulations, with no proper control measures implemented by the Pollution Control Board. This has also upset the voters.
- Crime: Crime in Kolar is another big issue. Maintaining law and order in Kolar district is a significant challenge, with over 30 murders reported in the last three months alone. While the police have been moderately successful in ensuring law enforcement, fundamental issues persist, causing distress among the local populace. Two juveniles accused of murdering a minor boy in Kolar in November 2023 were shot by the police while trying to detain them. A similar case of police shooting two people in its custody for the killing of a Congress leader came to light in October 2023. In the 15 days between the last week of October and first week of November last year, at least three murders were reported in Kolar alone. In October 2023, Kolar cybercrime police conducted raids on medical stores for allegedly selling medicines illegally and without doctor’s prescription. In December, Bengaluru police had also arrested a man from Kolar who issued a bomb threat to the Raj Bhavan. BJP has been asserting that the law-and-order situation in Karnataka has worsened owing to the Congress’ rule. In December, the party started highlighting crimes against women, and SC/ST communities. Earlier there was an incident of schoolkids belonging to the Dalit community being made to clean a septic tank in Kolar.
Voter Demographics
Total voters: 16,31,850
Male voters: 8,09,331
Female voters: 8,02,896
Caste-wise breakdown of voters (approximate):
Scheduled Caste: 4,20,867
Scheduled Tribe: 3,32,000
OBC: 3,10,000
Kuruba: 20,000
Bovi: 1,80,000
Muslim: 1,60,000
Balija: 40,000
Kshatriya: 45,000
Lingayat: 4,000
Brahmin: 2,000
Christian: 21,000
Others: 50,000
Religion-wise breakdown (Kolar district):
Hindus: 1,305,431 (84.97%)
Muslim: 199,873 (13.01%)
Christian: 26,722 (1.74%)
Jain: 2,494 (0.16%)
Sikh: 253 (0.02%)
Buddhist: 150 (0.01%)
Infrastructure Development
- Commissioned in 2006, the Yaragol dam project was finally inaugurated last year. The new dam is expected to supply water from the Markandeya reservoir to Kolar, Bangarpet and Malur towns as well as 45 villages in three taluks. This will come as a big relief for voters hit by water scarcity.
- In July last year, Rail Infrastructure Development Company (Karnataka) Limited (K-Ride) had proposed to extend the Bengaluru Suburban Rail Project (BSRP) for a total length of 452km to link the state capital with nearby cities and towns, including Kolar. Current progress on the project is not known.
- Japan’s Marubeni Corporation had expressed its interest in setting up a high-tech industrial park in Kolar. The initial investment for the project is estimated to be Rs 2,800 crore. If it materialises, the project will generate 40,000 jobs. In all, it will add $2 billion to the economy of Karnataka.
- Reports say the Civil Aviation Ministry and the state government are both pushing for the development of a greenfield airport in Kolar.
Key State Issues
Water Scarcity: The current water shortage gripping Karnataka is not a sudden phenomenon, but rather the culmination of years of neglect and mismanagement. Erratic monsoon patterns and a growing population have placed immense strain on water resources. The government’s over-reliance on groundwater extraction, coupled with a lack of investment in rainwater harvesting and water conservation initiatives, has exacerbated the crisis. This issue is particularly concerning for farmers in rural areas, who depend on a steady water supply for their livelihoods.
Governance and Corruption: The Congress government’s performance across various sectors will be under intense scrutiny. The water crisis is a prime example, but allegations of corruption in departments like public works and urban development will also be a major talking point. Inflated project costs, bureaucratic red tape, and stalled infrastructure projects will likely fuel public anger and erode trust in the government’s ability to deliver on its promises. The BJP is likely to capitalise on this sentiment.
Unkept Promises: Unfulfilled promises like the completion of the Mekedatu project, a contentious inter-state water sharing dispute with Tamil Nadu, will be a point of contention. The project’s perceived lack of progress could hurt the Congress’s image, especially in water-scarce regions.
Jobs & Social Security: Additionally, issues like rising unemployment, particularly among youth, and the effectiveness of social welfare schemes like the “five freebies” program will be debated. BJP will do well to highlight its own economic development plans, focusing on job creation and targeted welfare initiatives.
Law and Order: The recent bomb blast in Bengaluru has shaken public confidence in the state government. This incident, coupled with concerns about rising crime rates, especially in urban areas, will put the spotlight on the government’s ability to maintain law and order.
Caste and Religion: Karnataka politics has a long history of being influenced by caste equations. The BJP’s pre-poll alliance with the JD(S) aims to consolidate the votes of influential communities like Lingayats and Vokkaligas. Additionally, issues like the CAA, scrapping of Muslim reservation and hijab controversy in educational institutions will play a big role. Vokkaligas and Lingayats, the two social groups which dominate JD(S) and BJP, have also objected to the caste survey report which is now with CM Siddaramaiah.
Anti-Incumbency: Both BJP and Congress are facing anti-incumbency sentiments. This was evident in the BJP’s decision to bench a few sitting MPs. Congress has been less proactive. Voters are likely to be looking for fresh faces and parties offering a clear break from the status quo.
Leadership: The Siddaramaiah & DK Shivakumar duo remains popular among Congress supporters. The responsibility given to BS Yeddyurappa and his son by BJP will also be beneficial. Ground reports suggest voters are looking for candidates with a strong track record of public service, a clear connect on the ground.
National vs Regional Politics: Historically, Karnataka has voted differently in state and national elections. Ram Mandir, PM’s development agenda etc will find resonance in the state when it comes to Lok Sabha elections. Voters had prioritised local issues and leadership over national party affiliations during the state polls. But there is nothing to suggest that this will continue as a trend in 2024.
